European debt crisis also assessed complicate U.S. efforts to get out of recession. likely economic contraction in the U.S. that has continued until 2012.
This assessment is the result of research of the Federal Reserve in San Francisco, is quoted by news agency Reuters, 14 November 2011. The research report points out that the rise in potential recession in the U.S. will take place end of 2011 to 2012. The risk of recession is likely to be eased after the second half of 2012.
Government in Greece and Italy today, with their new promises to tackle fiscal problems recently, momentarily easing investor concerns about default risk of debt experienced by European countries in the near future. However, the crisis continues to threaten Europe, even Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany to assess the crisis is the worst for Europe after the Second World War.
The research report is considered that the domestic threat to U.S. economic growth is still very limited. However, shocks from abroad may be difficult for a U.S. economic recovery is still fragile.
"The problem of failing to pay debts in Europe could make the U.S. fell into recession," wrote Travis Berge, Early Elias, and Oscar Jorda. They are the authors of the report of the Central Bank research published in San Francisco. "However, if we managed to navigate the storm along the second half of 2012, it seems the danger it will quickly recede in 2013," they continued.
In these studies the risk of this recession, which is of most concern from the same reports. On 4 November, a Reuters poll of Wall Street economists expect the U.S. back into recession chances next year by 30 percent, down from a month earlier research by 35 percent. However, research results from the San Francisco shows that the risk would increase to 50 percent.
Last week U.S. Deputy Governor of Central Bank, Janet Yellen, has also warned of the threat from Europe. European governments need to implement measures that prevent the crisis does not lead to detrimental effects for the U.S